I operated short-term rentals before advising anyone. That period left me with an uncomfortable conviction: most Airbnb projections circulating in the Dominican market aren't analysis — they're sales pitches formatted as spreadsheets.
Gross is not net — and net is not what hits your account
The typical projection multiplies an optimistic nightly rate by an optimistic occupancy and divides by the purchase price. That number — gross yield — is where the conversation starts, not where it ends. Between gross income and your pocket live: platform fees, management (unless you plan to clean units yourself), unrecovered cleaning costs, utilities, internet, maintenance, linen and inventory replacement, building fees, and the vacancy months no sales projection ever includes.
- Professional management: typically 15%–25% of short-term rental income.
- Realistic occupancy in Santo Domingo: this is a corporate and diaspora market, not a beach market — mid-stays and weekday demand behave nothing like Punta Cana.
- Ramp-up months: photos, listing, first reviews. No asset performs from day one.
The five questions I ask before the price
- Does the building allow short-term rentals? More and more owners' associations restrict them. You verify this in the condo bylaws — you don't assume it.
- Who is the guest? In Distrito Nacional the profitable guest is usually corporate, medical, or diaspora visiting family — that defines the zone, unit size, and outfitting.
- What happens if Airbnb underperforms? The unit must hold up as an executive long-term rental. If the thesis only works in the optimistic scenario, it isn't a thesis — it's a bet.
- What is the real outfitting cost? Furnishing to a competitive standard is additional capital that almost never appears in the seller's projection.
- Is the operation sustainable from abroad? Monthly reporting, who answers at 2 a.m., who replaces what breaks. Short-term rental is an operating business, not a passive asset.
An honest projection tells you how much you can lose before it tells you how much you can make.
What a serious underwriting looks like
Three scenarios — conservative, base, and optimistic — with occupancy and rate modeled separately, operating expenses line by line, and net yield computed on total capital invested (price + closing + outfitting), not just the list price. If a number in that table can't be defended with comparable data from the zone, it comes down until it can. I'd rather lose a sale than have a client buy on fantasy numbers.
The ranges cited here are indicative and move with the market. Every real underwriting is built with current data for the specific zone and building.